Using changes in land use and land cover to predict avian species occurrences at

Open-canopy oak forests not cleared for agriculture rapidly shift to closed-canopy forests. These changes have produced feedback loops that increasingly favor shade-tolerant tree species over fire-adapted species. Studies observing changes from oak-to mapledominated forests have found decreased avian species richness and abundance. The primary goal of this study was to examine changes in forest bird communities over a relatively short period of time, and assess these changes in light of habitat alterations during this same period. We specifically used recent survey data to predict forest bird occurrences. Point counts were conducted during the breeding season in 2006-07 at 49 survey stations that had been surveyed in 1995-96. Local-habitat variables were measured within 50-m and land cover and land use variables were digitized (200-m, 1-km, and 6-km) for each period. Single-species logistic and autologistic models were created using the 1995-96 dataset. Using the 2006-07 dataset, models were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Predictive models performed best for species associated with open habitats and dense understories, suggesting that we have a relatively good understanding of their habitat requirements. The inclusion of variables measured at relatively fine scales suggests that relying on remotely sensed imagery alone will not be sufficient to make predictions on species occurrences at the scales we studied.